Below is the Lake Ontario Synopsis daily briefing for May 24, 2019.
It’s part of the Lake Erie – Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Daily Briefing.
Lake Ontario’s level continued rising last week, albeit more gradually than the week prior thanks to relatively drier weather, which also allowed Lake Ontario outflows to be increased substantially as Ottawa River flows declined.
With additional precipitation in the forecast for this coming week and record inflows from Lake Erie continuing, Lake Ontario is expected to continue rising gradually over the next several days.
There remains a 50% chance that levels will reach or exceed the 2017 record peak of 75.88 m (248.95 ft) during the coming week.
Lake Ontario is expected to reach its seasonal peak this year within the next 1 to 2 weeks, with most scenarios suggesting a peak level slightly above the 2017 high, before it begins to slowly decline thereafter.
Lake Ontario levels are already at critical values in some areas, and there is the potential for a greater rise under the wettest scenarios.
Longer-term, with well above-average inflows from Lake Erie expected to continue, and given average inflows from the Lake Ontario basin, water levels will decline through the summer, but will remain near seasonal highs for at least the next several weeks.